Variance In Live Poker

Variance In Live PokerVariance in live poker tournaments

Poker Variance & Downswings 'I'm running bad,' is a phrase you will often hear poker players use to describe periods of bad luck or variance. In poker, it sometimes just feels as if the cards are.

Variance In Live Poker Odds

Variance In Live Poker

Variance In Live Poker Tournaments

The short-term effect of luck in poker – both good and bad – is known as “variance”. Good players accept variance as part of poker, and work on reducing its influence on their own game. A “bad beat” is the name given to an occurence in poker where a markedly worse hand beats a better one, through fortune alone. The variance in poker is such that even a winning live cash game player can go many months breaking even or even losing money. There are only two ways to beat variance. The first is playing through it. As long as you are a winning player and can control your losses, you will get through the bad spells and show a positive balance in the long run. Although it's nice to live in the moment, poker is a long-term game and for the impact of variance to be watered down to the point where it's not skewing your results, you need to play a lot of sessions. Let's take a look at what we mean by variance. In concrete terms variance is the statistical distribution of results over a long period of time. Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in live poker due to the much slower.

Variance In Live Poker
The Players Guide To Video Poker Information

Variance In Live Poker Deuces Wild

Home
Why Play Video Poker?
The Basics
History of the Game
Game Terminology
Hand Rankings
Hand Odds
Game Variance
Common Myths
Playing Guide
How To Play
Machine Selection
Required Bankroll
Do's and Don'ts
Strategy Guide
Single Vs Multi Hand
Progressive Games
Comp & VIP Points
Game Variations
Jacks or Better
Deuces Wild
Double Bonus
Double Double Bonus
Joker Poker
Deuces and Joker
More Variations
Playing Online
Online Gambling
Games by Payout
Software Types
Free Video Poker
More Information
Recommended Sites
What is variance? While we could go into the mathematical details we will explain variance on video poker machines using real world examples. Variance is one of the characteristics that makes a big difference in the short term results between one game and another. Lets compare two popular machines.
Below you have the pay tables for both full pay Jacks or Better (9/6) and a popular variety of Double Double Bonus (40/10/6). We picked these games for the example as both have a total return in the 99% range and compared side by side make a good example of variance in the real world.
Full Pay Jacks or Better (9/6)
Dbl Dbl Bonus (40/10/6)
Hand PayoutReturn % Hand PayoutReturn %
Royal Flush40001.98%Royal Flush40001.95%
Straight Flush2500.55%Straight Flush 2000.44%
Four of a Kind 1255.91%Four Aces +2-4 20002.46%
Full House 4510.36%Four Aces 8002.78%
Flush 306.61%Four 2-4 + A-4 8002.29%
Straight204.49%Four 2 - 4 4003.08%
Three of a Kind 1522.33%Four 5 - K 2508.16%
Two Pair 1025.86%Full House 5010.86%
Jacks or Better 521.46%Flush306.77%
Straight205.11%
Three of a Kind 1522.59%
Two Pair 512.31%
Jacks or Better 521.16%
Total Return99.5439%Total Return 99.9577%
Variance19.51468Variance41.96707

Variance Explained

You will notice at the bottom of each pay table we have listed the variance. The first machine shows 19.51468 and the second is over double at 41.96707. The biggest difference when you compare the pays are the four of a kind wins. On the Jacks or Better machine they make up 5.91% of the total return while on the Double Double Bonus machine they make up 18.77% of the total return.
You will also notice that on the Double Double Bonus machine the pay for two pair makes up 12.31% of the total while on the Jacks or Better the same pay contributes 25.86% to the overall percentage. It is these changes in the way that pays contribute to the overall pay outs that alter the variance.
Let's say you play 1,000 hands on both of the machines above and do not hit a royal flush or any four of a kinds. At the end of the thousand hands it is more likely that you will still have a good amount of credits left if you were playing the Jacks or Better machine compared to the Double Double Bonus. This is because one of the more common hands, the two pairs pay is a win on Jacks or Better while it is simply your bet back on the second game.
Comparing the two games you will find that the first game will offer a longer run of smaller pays that keep you going while the second machine will be much harder on your bankroll if you do not hit any of the four of a kind ands. This difference is what variance is all about.
The question then comes to mind - Which machine should I play? In the example above the Double Double Bonus would be a better bet over the long term simply because it has a higher overall pay back. But in the short term you have to ask yourself, do you want regular small wins that keep you playing or do you want to have fewer small wins but the chance at the occasional big hit. This is a personal choice so there is no right or wrong answer - it is totally up to you.

Popular Games Compared

Below is a table showing the variance for several popular video poker machine types. This further illustrates the points made above. Note that the higher the number the higher the variance.
GameVarianceGameVariance
Pick'em Poker 15.0055 All American 26.7998
Jacks or Better 19.5146Double Bonus 28.2555
Bonus Poker 20.9040Double Double Bonus 41.9849
Aces & Eights 21.7259 Deuces & Joker 45.5885
Deuces Wild 25.8346Loose Deuces 70.3054
Navigation : Home > Video Poker Variance